Oil exports from Novorossiysk plunge
Baird Maritime reports that Ukrainian drone activity at the Sheskharis terminal has forced Russia’s Black Sea crude output to drop sharply. Loadings are projected to fall below 350,000 barrels per day in August, compared with roughly 800,000 bpd recorded in July.
Two unnamed traders told the outlet that Russian producers will move about 600,000 tonnes of crude from Novorossiysk this month, while the remaining portion of a total 1.4 million‑tonne schedule is expected to consist of Kazakh oil diverted from the Baltic hub of Ust‑Luga.
The same source notes that Ukraine has pledged not to target tankers carrying non‑Russian crude, yet drones have previously struck cargoes linked to Kazakhstan, including CPC Blend shipments loaded near Sheskharis. Traders anticipate the disruption will persist into September.
Grain terminals shut down amid intensified attacks
According to Hellenic Shipping News, Ukrainian maritime and aerial drone strikes have forced the closure of several key grain facilities at Novorossiysk. On 12 August, Andrei Sisov of SovEcon flagged that the Novorossiysk Bread Products Plant (NKHP) and the adjacent grain terminal ceased operations; a day later the deep‑water KSK terminal also halted loading.
Earlier in July the Taman terminal had already stopped, while shallow‑water ports on the Sea of Azov were paralysed earlier in the year. With only the Tuapse terminal remaining active, Sisov warned that “virtually all Russian grain exports via the Azov‑Black Sea basin are blocked.”
Wider market repercussions: wheat prices soar
The Maritime Executive links the shipping turmoil to a sharp rise in global wheat markets. Since the start of August, Chicago wheat futures have climbed 18 %, reaching three‑year highs – a movement the outlet attributes directly to Black Sea disruptions affecting both Russian and Ukrainian grain flows.
In addition, about 70 bulk carriers are reported to be waiting outside the Sulina Canal, the Danube’s northern gateway, underscoring the bottleneck that is now constraining cargo movements throughout the region.
Escalating naval targeting by both sides
The same Maritime Executive analysis notes a broader intensification of attacks on commercial shipping. Ukraine has concentrated on Russia’s oil‑export infrastructure to curtail supplies to Crimea, while the Russian Ministry of Defence claims recent strikes on three cargo ships and one tanker in the Pivdennyi (Yuzhny) port, adding that up to five vessels were hit over the past two days.
These developments signal a sustained campaign with little sign of de‑escalation, as both belligerents continue to justify their actions on military grounds.
What this means for operators
Ship owners and charterers must now factor heightened risk premiums into Black Sea voyages, reassess cargo routing away from vulnerable Russian terminals, and consider alternative loading points such as Baltic or Far‑Eastern ports. Insurance costs are expected to rise, and crew safety protocols will need reinforcement in light of the documented drone threats. Operators relying on Russian grain or crude supplies should explore diversified sourcing strategies to mitigate potential shortfalls.
