Up to 70 vessels are waiting near the Danube's Sulina Canal for access to Ukrainian ports to load grain for export, according to traders and analysts. This situation is exacerbating delays in the grain export process, with a shortage of pilots and higher priority given to other cargoes. Since the Russian attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which handled 90% of the country's grain exports, some shipments have been rerouted through Danube river ports, which have much lower capacity. These ports now face increased competition from higher-priority shipments such as fuel, further slowing export processes.
Capacity Challenges and Air Raid Alerts
As of August 25, more than 50 vessels were waiting to pass through the Sulina Channel, while only five to seven vessels per day were moving towards Ukraine's Danube ports, according to consultancy ASAP Agri. The consultancy reported that each day of delay can cost up to $8,000, adding to already high freight rates. Katerina Kononenko, operations manager at Avalon Shipping, noted that the Sulina Canal was expected to be closed for about two days because of poor weather. She emphasized that the current situation is "really a serious setback," with only two to three vessels per day able to access Ukrainian ports.
Historical Context and Impact
Ukraine, one of the world's biggest grain exporters, has heavily relied on Danube ports, especially when Russia blocked the Greater Odesa region's ports. Grain export capacity through the Danube peaked at 2.5 million metric tons a month in 2022 to 2023. However, export volumes via the Danube remain well below these levels, although traders are gradually increasing shipments. State railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia reported that grain transport volumes to Danube ports in August were 11 times higher than in July. Agriculture ministry data show that Ukraine exported 539,000 tons of grain from August 1 to August 21, compared with 1.73 million in the same period a year earlier, according to Reuters.
What This Means for Operators
Operators navigating the Danube Canal face significant delays and increased costs. The shortage of pilots, combined with the priority given to higher-priority shipments, limits the number of vessels that can enter Ukrainian ports daily. Furthermore, frequent air raid alerts, which can suspend all port operations, add to the disruption. This situation could worsen if weather conditions deteriorate, potentially halting traffic for several days. Ship operators should prepare for prolonged waiting periods and increased costs, and consider alternative routes or times to avoid peak congestion.
