Ukraine's agricultural ministry has slashed its grain export target for the 2026/27 season by up to 12 per cent following Russian attacks on southern ports. According to Reuters, Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s agriculture minister, reported that the country now aims for exports of between 38 and 40 million tonnes this season, down from an initial projection of 43 million tonnes before the escalation began in late July.
These attacks have significantly disrupted grain shipments, with Reuters noting a halt to operations at two major grain export terminals in Novorossiysk, Russia, due to damage sustained by Ukrainian forces. This incident is part of ongoing hostilities between Kyiv and Moscow that are affecting shipping activities in the Black Sea.
The lower forecast reflects growing concerns over grain storage shortages, estimated at 11 million tonnes, as reported by the agriculture ministry. Analysts from APK-Inform further cut their export projections by 8.6 per cent to 39.4 million tonnes, aligning with government estimates. The disruptions could lead to significant economic losses in Ukraine’s agricultural sector, potentially reaching $3 billion.
Impact on global markets
The reduction in grain exports is particularly concerning for countries reliant on Ukrainian supplies. As a major exporter of wheat, corn, and barley, the country plays a critical role in global food security. The attacks have not only affected Ukraine’s economy but also created instability in international trade, prompting shipowners to avoid Black Sea ports.
According to TradeWinds, these ongoing hostilities continue to pose risks for shipping activities, as vessel operators are already cautious about navigating the region amid the conflict between Kyiv and Moscow. This highlights the need for robust security measures and negotiation efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels.