Marine insurance stable amid geopolitical shifts and decarbonisation push

The global marine insurance market remains stable, with a 5.5% growth in premium income reaching $42.6 billion in 2025 according to the International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI). Despite this growth, geopolitical and technical changes are significantly impacting the sector, as highlighted at IUMI’s annual conference in Rotterdam.

Geopolitical Risks

IUMI President Frédéric Denèfle warned that while the overall market is performing well, insurers need to remain alert to a host of uncertainties. The US trade tariffs did not cause the disruptions feared, and the world economy remained resilient. However, war risks are increasing, and there’s greater competition due to additional capacity. Inflationary pressures also persist. Denèfle emphasized that free trade and global commerce face ongoing uncertainty.

Denèfle stated that insurers must adapt to changing trade patterns as shipping companies seek alternative routes to avoid conflict zones. For instance, military conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea have driven tankers and other vessels towards safer routes, often at greater distances, boosting bunker demand and overall energy costs. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the additional war risk premium for crude oil loaded from Black Sea ports at $2.9 per barrel on September 21, 2026, up significantly from $0.9 per barrel on December 31, 2025.

Decarbonisation and Digital Transformation

The IUMI President also stressed the importance of insurers playing a leading role in supporting the decarbonisation of shipping. Denèfle acknowledged that despite some hiccups, there is a clear need for insurers to be involved in this transition. He pointed out that technology is driving significant change within the sector, with data standards, digitalisation, and artificial intelligence (AI) already influencing operations.

Denèfle predicted that in the near future, the industry will be able to offer fully digitised and standardised global cargo insurance certificates. “AI will change how we operate,” he said, adding that insurers must embrace this technology wholeheartedly for efficiency and smarter decision-making. This transformation is expected to make marine insurance operations more streamlined and responsive.

Geographic Shifts and Emerging Markets

The geographic distribution of the global cargo market also underwent significant changes in 2025, with Asia rapidly closing the gap on Europe. The European share of the global cargo market was 46.5%, while Asia accounted for 39.7% in 2025, compared to 44.3% and 38.9% respectively in the previous year. China continued to be a key driver of growth, particularly through new products tied to domestic e-commerce and high-value exports such as electric vehicles (EVs), photovoltaics, and lithium batteries.

Other markets showed varying trends: Latin America reported gradual improvement with loss ratios around 45%, while the US saw a significant fall to approximately 40%. The European market’s strong headline premium growth was largely due to currency movements rather than underlying market development. Singapore recorded robust growth of 13% driven by high-tech and semiconductor shipments.

What this means for operators

The changing geopolitical landscape, coupled with the increasing demand for decarbonisation measures and digital transformation, presents both challenges and opportunities for marine insurers and ship operators. Operators must stay vigilant about regional risks, adapt to new trade routes, and embrace technological advancements to remain competitive. As the insurance market continues to evolve, operators will need robust risk management strategies that account for both traditional hazards and emerging threats.