Iran warns of wider exclusion zone around Hormuz as tanker strikes escalate

Iran has announced plans to establish a wider exclusion zone around the Strait of Hormuz in response to recent attacks by both US and Iranian forces. The move follows several high-profile incidents involving oil tankers in the region and is likely to exacerbate tensions between Iran and the United States.

Iran's expanded exclusion zone

According to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei stated that Tehran plans to establish a maritime exclusion zone around the Strait of Hormuz. This exclusion zone would extend from the point where US naval patrols have been intensified and continue through the Gulf of Oman into the Arabian Gulf, effectively covering the entire strategic waterway.

Rezaei also warned that any ships attempting to cross this new boundary without permission could be subject to attack by Iranian patrol vessels and placed on an sanctions list. The exact boundaries of the exclusion zone are yet to be announced but are expected within days.

US strikes and regional impacts

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) carried out a series of attacks against three Iran-linked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, disabling or destroying them. The strikes came as retaliation for Iranian missile attacks aimed at two US Navy warships patrolling the region.

According to CENTCOM, they disabled M/T Downy near Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask, while a third vessel, M/T Kylo (also known as Noxen), was completely destroyed in the Gulf of Oman. The strikes have significantly reduced tanker traffic through the Strait; as of Monday, only seven vessels were transiting compared to eight on Sunday.

Following these incidents, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts for December 2026 and 2027 due to expected persisting shipping disruptions in the Middle East. The bank now sees a potential of Brent reaching $120 per barrel if attacks intensify.

Iranian workaround strategies

In an attempt to bypass US naval blockades, Iran is exploring alternative routes and methods for exporting its oil. Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad claimed that the country was developing various workaround routes to navigate around the US blockade. Despite this, data from market intelligence firm Kpler showed a significant drop in Iranian crude exports; last month, Tehran managed to export only about 260,000 barrels per day (b/d), down 80% from the same period last year.

Further complicating matters is the escalation of attacks by Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, these militants launched a series of attacks injuring 73 people and targeting multiple locations in the kingdom, further heightening regional tensions.

What this means for operators

The establishment of an exclusion zone and ongoing strikes could significantly disrupt oil tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz. Operators must prepare for potential rerouting or increased security measures, which could lead to longer transit times and higher insurance premiums. Additionally, any ships entering the new exclusion zone are at risk of being attacked or placed on sanctions lists, adding an element of uncertainty to the region.

Shippers should monitor updates from local authorities and maritime intelligence providers closely to ensure compliance with changing regulations. The continued escalation in tensions suggests that operators need to plan for longer-term disruptions as well, potentially impacting supply chains and global oil markets.