Marine fuel buyers have entered 2026 facing what industry observers describe as a “perfect storm”. Record bunker prices are coinciding with an unprecedented rise in fuel‑quality problems, according to recent VPS Group findings.
Alert numbers climb sharply
The VPS testing programme issued 29 Bunker Alerts between January and July 2026. That tally already exceeds the total number of alerts recorded for the entirety of 2024 and approaches the 37 alerts logged across all of 2025. Maritime Logistics Professional points out that this rapid accumulation within seven months underscores an accelerating deterioration in fuel quality.
Key issues and affected ports
Analysis shows that abrasive problems linked to elevated cat‑fines, together with stability concerns, account for 72 % of the alerts released so far. The ports where these specific warnings have been triggered include ARA, Balboa, Busan, Callao, Hamburg, Houston, Las Palmas, Philadelphia, Piraeus, Rotterdam, San Roque, Singapore and Valencia.
Marine Link adds that marine gas oil (MGO) has not featured in any alert to date, while heavy fuel oil (HSFO) and very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) dominate the warning list.
Off‑specification rates rise across fuel grades
Testing data reveal that 8.87 % of HSFO samples failed at least one ISO 8217 parameter, while VLSFO showed a 9.88 % non‑compliance rate. MGO was off‑spec in 9.03 % of cases and ultra‑low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) recorded the highest breach level at 19.58 %. Ship & Bunker notes that ISO 8217 specifications apply only at the point of custody transfer, meaning compliance does not guarantee performance throughout a vessel’s onboard lifecycle.
Geopolitical backdrop fuels volatility
The reports all cite the ongoing Middle East conflict as a major driver behind both price spikes and quality degradation in the traditional marine fossil‑fuel supply chain. Hellenic Shipping News describes the market as “more expensive, more complex and unpredictable”, warning of a higher degree of operational risk for ship owners and operators.
What this means for operators
Ship operators should anticipate increased scrutiny of bunker deliveries, especially in the ports listed above. Given the high incidence of cat‑fine and stability issues, enhanced fuel‑testing protocols on board and more rigorous verification at the manifold are advisable. Operators may also need to reconsider fuel procurement strategies, possibly favouring MGO where feasible, to mitigate the risk of engine fouling or unexpected shutdowns associated with off‑spec HSFO and VLSFO batches.