The classification society’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 has quantified how pivotal the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) Net‑Zero Framework (NZF) will be for the future of marine fuels. Depending on whether the framework is implemented as planned, global demand for low‑GHG bunkers could swell from a modest few million tonnes today to more than one hundred and eighty‑five million tonnes of oil equivalent (MMtoe) by mid‑century.

Demand pathways under the NZF and without it

DNV’s modelling presents two divergent trajectories. In the “high‑demand” scenario, where the NZF is adopted from 2029 with remedial pricing that forces fleet‑wide emissions cuts, demand for low‑GHG fuels would reach between 22 MMtoe and 185 MMtoe in 2030 and 2050 respectively. The lower bound of this pathway sits at 4 MMtoe in 2030 rising to 33 MMtoe by 2050 if the framework is abandoned indefinitely, leaving only regional measures such as FuelEU Maritime and the EU ETS to drive change (Ship & Bunker, “DNV Sees Rapid Growth…”).

Hellenic Shipping News echoes these figures, noting that under an adopted NZF ships could consume roughly 33 MMtoe of low‑emission fuels in 2030 and 185 MMtoe by 2050, whereas a regulatory stalemate would cap demand at about 4 MMtoe in 2030 and 33 MMtoe in 2050 (Hellenic Shipping News, “IMO could boost green bunker demand…”).

Supply side – projects and cost competitiveness

The same DNV analysis estimates that total global supply of low‑GHG fuels might peak at around 270 MMtoe by 2030 if all announced production facilities reach financial close. This potential supply is nearly double the projected output for 2025, with bio‑based pathways such as manure‑derived biomethane, sugarcane ethanol and waste‑oil biodiesel identified as early contributors (Ship & Bunker, “DNV Sees Rapid Growth…”).

However, Hellenic Shipping News cautions that only about 62 MMtoe of the projected supply would be cost‑competitive under an approved NZF. The society flags a wide cost spread – from US$180 to US$1,290 per tonne of CO₂‑equivalent avoided by 2030 – depending on feedstock and production method.

Regulatory delay reshapes the outlook

The Maritime Executive points out that the postponement of the IMO’s NZF has forced DNV to revise its forecasts, placing greater emphasis on efficiency measures rather than immediate green‑fuel uptake. “Fuel efficiency and flexibility are now the new watchwords,” the outlet reports, underscoring that the cost of scaling a worldwide green‑fuel supply chain remains the sector’s biggest obstacle.

DNV Maritime CEO Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, quoted by Hellenic Shipping News, stressed that a unified global framework would prevent market fragmentation and give shipowners, fuel producers and investors the confidence needed for long‑term planning.

LNG as a bridge technology

A separate DNV briefing highlights LNG’s potential role. If the fleet fully exploits its dual‑fuel capability, LNG consumption could climb to about 42 million tonnes (≈48 MMtoe) by 2030 – representing roughly two‑thirds of the total alternative‑fuel utilisation possible that year (Ship & Bunker, “LNG Could Reach 42 Million MT…”). Yet actual usage has lagged behind capacity, with LNG‑capable vessels operating at only 32–52 % of their estimated consumption potential outside dedicated carriers, a gap attributed to high bunkering prices and the absence of strong regulatory incentives.

What this means for operators

Shipowners should treat the pending IMO NZF as a binary risk: full adoption will unleash a rapid expansion in low‑GHG bunker demand, while continued gridlock will keep volumes modest. In practice, this translates into a need to secure flexible dual‑fuel installations that can swing between conventional fuels and emerging green options without incurring lengthy off‑hire periods. Operators must also monitor price signals at major bunkering hubs – particularly the spread between LNG and fuel oil – as these will dictate short‑term fuel choices until a stable regulatory cost framework is in place. Finally, early engagement with biofuel supply chains could hedge against future scarcity of cost‑competitive green fuels, positioning fleets to meet both efficiency targets and potential carbon pricing regimes.