Shifting trade patterns and geopolitical disruptions have driven sustained tonne-mile growth in the tanker market, leading to a surge in freight rates. According to gCaptain, the global fleet is aging, and there is an increasing need for energy-efficient ships, driving a wave of newbuild activity expected over the coming years. The tanker market entered 2026 on strong footing, with freight rates surging to levels more than 60% above the 10-year average by late 2025, reaching peaks of over $100,000 per day for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC).

Geopolitical shifts and longer voyage distances

Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly sanctions on Russian crude and refined products, has disrupted traditional trade routes, creating longer voyage distances and tightening oil and vessel supply. Catrine Vestereng, SVP and Global Business Director for Tankers at DNV, explains that these changes have resulted in vessels covering much longer distances, driving tonne-mile demand to record highs. By the end of 2025, vessel capacity utilization exceeded 90%, lifting freight rates well above historic norms, with VLCC and Suezmax rates both standing out at over 60% above 10-year averages.

Resilient oil demand

Resilient global demand for crude oil and oil products, coupled with sustained seaborne trade, is reinforcing the market's strength. Nicolai Hansteen, Tanker Market Specialist and Business Development Manager at DNV, highlights that most of China's imports now arrive via seaborne trade, further emphasizing the critical role of tankers in global energy logistics. According to gCaptain, China has added over 1 million barrels per day (Mb/d) of new refinery capacity since 2020, with an additional 1.3-1.5 Mb/d set to come online by the end of the decade, further boosting tonne-mile demand.

Buying appetite and secondhand values

Despite the near-term pressures from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which have driven voyage costs and rerouting, buying appetite has remained strong, and secondhand values have remained firm. According to Hellenic Shipping News, the Strait of Hormuz crisis has disrupted established trade routes and increased voyage costs, but owners have taken a longer-term view of asset values. Secondhand values have held up well, supported by an ageing global fleet and limited newbuilding deliveries.

For example, Sinokor has dominated Tanker buying this year, purchasing an extraordinary 73 vessels for a combined USD 5,925 million, placing them far ahead of the rest of the field. Industrial Bank Financial Leasing ranks second by spend with USD 1,151.9 million across 12 Tankers, followed closely by ADNOC Logistics and Services, which spent USD 987 million.

What this means for operators

The strong market outlook for tankers, driven by geopolitical shifts and resilient oil demand, means that operators should prepare for sustained freight rates and an increased focus on energy-efficient vessels. However, the high costs of newbuilds and the need for longer-term strategies may present challenges. Owners are advised to maintain a balance between immediate operational needs and long-term investment in new technology to ensure competitiveness in the market.